Market bulletin · № 1 · January 2026

Turkish crop losses lift pistachio and hazelnut prices; freight eases

January was the month in which the impact of 2025’s frost and drought on Turkey’s pistachio, hazelnut and walnut crops showed clearly in export data, as strong shipments from California and Chile to the Middle East sought to fill the gap. The pre–Chinese New Year shipping rush faded mid-month and Asia–Mediterranean freight eased, while Black Sea sunflower prices climbed to their highest of the season.

Period: January 2026

Figures of the month

€50/kgTurkish pistachio kernels, local price before New YearPistachios
US$12.20/kgAverage export price, Sept–Dec (record)Hazelnuts
+44.3%California December almond exports to Middle East/AfricaAlmonds
US$5.23 bnVietnam 2025 cashew exports (record)Cashews

Market overview

PistachiosRisingHazelnutsRisingAlmondsMixedCashewsRisingWalnutsRisingSunflower seedsRisingGreen coffeeFallingPeanutsFallingPumpkin seedsSteadyMacadamiaRisingRaisinsSteadyLogistics and freightFalling

Pistachios Rising

Turkish pistachio shortage as California exports climb 27%

According to TurkStat, Türkiye’s 2025 pistachio output fell 61.5%; local kernel prices reached €50/kg before New Year, while GAIB data show exports down 43% to 9,127 t. The ACP’s 15 January report shows California receipts of 1.57 billion lb, with September–December exports up 27.1% to 405.6 million lb and shipments to Türkiye up 89% and to the UAE up 88%. In Iran, an internet shutdown since 8 January has disrupted trade.

€50/kgTurkish pistachio kernels, local price before New Year

Sources (4)

Hazelnuts Rising

Hazelnut exports halve as unit price hits record

According to the Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Union, exports in the first four months of the 2025/26 season (September–December) fell 51.8% to 64,711 t and revenue fell 27.15% to US$795.6 mn, levels the union likened to the 1980s. Calendar-2025 exports totalled 238,704 t worth US$2.26 bn, and TurkStat put the 2025 crop decline at 38.5%. The average export price rose to a record US$12.20/kg amid weak demand; the market is watching possible Ferrero buying in February and the first 2026 flower counts.

US$12.20/kgAverage export price, Sept–Dec (record)

Sources (4)

Almonds Mixed

California almond shipments pick up in December; Middle East strong

According to the Almond Board’s December report released on 13 January, shipments rose 5.4% to 245.8 million lb and exports 11.1% to 196.7 million lb; exports to the Middle East/Africa rose 44.3%, with Türkiye up 132%, the UAE 36% and Morocco 16%. Season-to-date shipments are still 6.5% behind and commitments 11.6% lower, with receipts reaching 2.51 billion lb. A CSUB analysis expects the crop to end near 2.65 billion lb (±0.05).

+44.3%California December almond exports to Middle East/Africa

Sources (2)

Cashews Rising

Vietnam cashew exports top US$5 bn; raw nuts costly

Preliminary Vietnamese customs data show 2025 cashew exports up 5.7% to 766,585 t and a record US$5.23 bn in value, with the average export price up 13.9% to US$6,817/t. Around 3 million t of raw cashew were imported for about US$4.5 bn, at an average price 18.2% higher; VINACAS notes that domestic raw material covers only about 10% of needs. Cambodia exported about 1 million t of raw nuts, almost all to Vietnam, with prices peaking near US$2,000/t in October.

US$5.23 bnVietnam 2025 cashew exports (record)

Sources (3)

Walnuts Rising

Strong Middle East demand for California and Chilean walnuts

California Walnut Board data show in-shell exports up 45% and kernel exports up 12% in the first four months of the season; in-shell shipments to the Middle East/Africa rose 210% while India fell 15%, and conventional receipts were up 35%. According to ChileNut, Chile’s in-shell exports to the Middle East/Africa more than doubled this season to 34,719 t (Türkiye +62%, UAE more than tenfold, Morocco −61%), and December kernel exports rose 11%. TurkStat puts Türkiye’s 2025 walnut output down 38.2%.

+210%California in-shell walnut exports to Middle East/Africa, Sept–Dec

Sources (3)

Sunflower seeds Rising

Black Sea sunflower at season high; Turkish imports surge

In Ukraine, sunflower seed delivered to plants reached UAH 29,000–30,000 (US$590–610/t) on 23 January, the season’s high, and Russian sunflower oil traded at US$1,270–1,280/t FOB Black Sea. Oil in European ports hit US$1,409/t on 8 January, the highest since August 2022, with CIF Türkiye at US$1,318/t. Türkiye, whose own output has fallen for a third season, imported 384,000 t of seed in September–November (nearly eight times more), while US non-oil (confectionery) sunflower output fell 4%.

US$590–610/tUkrainian sunflower seed delivered to plant, season high (23 Jan)

Sources (4)

Green coffee Falling

Coffee prices ease; Brazil exports down 21%

According to the ICO report released on 16 January, the composite indicator price averaged 304.68 US cents/lb in December, down 7.8%, on an improved supply outlook and a weaker Brazilian real; robusta fell 11.3%. Cecafé data show Brazil exported 40.05 million bags in 2025 (−20.8%), but revenue rose 24.1% to a record US$15.59 bn; the US slipped to second place after its 50% tariff, while exports to Türkiye rose 3.3% to 1.56 million bags.

304.68 US¢/lbICO composite indicator, December average (−7.8%)

Sources (2)

Peanuts Falling

Record US peanut crop; Indian prices slide

According to USDA NASS’s annual summary released on 12 January, US 2025 peanut production rose 11% to a record 7.18 billion lb, with harvested area up 9% to 1.91 million acres and yields of 3,767 lb/acre. In India the market has been falling for five weeks: Gujarat state purchases reached about 1.55–1.60 million t and slowed, domestic and export demand stayed weak, and further declines are expected in February.

7.18 bn lbUS 2025 peanut production (record, +11%)

Sources (2)
  • USDA NASS — Crop Production 2025 Summary 2026-01-12
  • Mundus Agri — Peanuts: low buying interest 2026-01-12

Pumpkin seeds Steady

China pumpkin seeds firm ahead of Chinese New Year

Grower stocks in China are largely exhausted and domestic demand ahead of Chinese New Year (17 February) supported prices, although export demand stayed weak. On 28 January CFR main European port offers stood at US$3,200/t for GWS A, US$3,550/t for GWS AA and US$3,650/t for Shine Skin AA, only US$10/t below a week earlier. Early estimates point to a larger 2026 crop than in 2025, and Chelmer Foods expects price pressure to build from April.

US$3,650/tShine Skin AA, CFR European main ports, 28 January

Sources (2)

Macadamia Rising

EU macadamia demand at record; Kenya opens harvest early

EU macadamia imports exceeded 10,000 t for the first time in 2025, with value up 63% to €123 mn; South Africa, supplying 52% of volume, raised shipments 28%, Kenya 15% and Australia 14%. SAMAC says prospects for the 2026 crop are encouraging but carry-over in-shell supplies are limited. On 29 January Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) said it would lift its harvest and trade ban on 1 February, two weeks earlier than planned.

+63%EU 2025 macadamia import value (€123 mn)

Sources (2)

Raisins Steady

Turkish raisin crop halved; exports down 20%

According to the Aegean Dried Fruit Exporters’ Association, the raisin crop has fallen from 320,000 t to 165,000 t over three years, while the sector’s 2025 dried fruit exports reached US$1.7 bn despite climate-related losses. In early January, sultana exports were reported down 20%. Type 9 sultanas held at TRY 95–100/kg on 20 January amid weak demand, with only organic prices correcting.

TRY 95–100/kgType 9 sultanas, 20 January

Sources (3)

Logistics and freight Falling

Pre-Chinese New Year rush fades; Asia–Med freight eases

Freightos’ FBX13 Asia–Mediterranean index rose 21% to US$4,844/FEU on 6 January before easing to US$4,385/FEU by 27 January; Drewry’s Shanghai–Genoa rate fell from US$3,885 on 8 January to US$3,293 on 29 January, with the WCI down three weeks in a row. Carriers paused Red Sea return plans amid tensions in Iran, and CMA CGM moved three Asia–Europe services back to the Cape of Good Hope. On 22 January the CBRT cut its policy rate from 38% to 37%; USD/TRY rose from 42.95 on 1 January to 43.50 on 30 January.

US$4,385/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), 27 January

Sources (9)
  • Freightos — LNY demand pushing ocean rates up as air moves past peak – January 6, 2026 Update 2026-01-06
  • Freightos — More tariff threats, LNY rush easing, and winter storm disruptions – January 27, 2026 Update 2026-01-27
  • AJOT (Drewry) — Drewry World Container Index – 08 Jan 2026-01-08
  • Hellenic Shipping News (Drewry) — Drewry: World Container Index Down 4% Last Week 2026-01-17
  • gCaptain (Drewry) — Drewry: Carriers drip-feed capacity back into Suez as container rates slide 2026-01-22
  • ShipUniverse (Drewry) — Drewry WCI Continues Slide (29 Jan 2026: Third Straight Weekly Drop) 2026-01-30
  • CNN Türk — Merkez Bankası faiz kararı ne oldu? Yılın ilk faiz kararı (22 Ocak 2026) 2026-01-22
  • Karar — Yılın ilk günü Dolar ne kadar oldu? Euro ne kadar? (1 Ocak 2026) 2026-01-01
  • Mynet Finans — Dolar bugün kaç TL? 30 Ocak Cuma 2026 2026-01-30

This bulletin is an informational summary compiled from public sources and does not constitute commercial advice. Request a quote for current prices.

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