Ramadan buying firm, cashew and coffee ease; month ends in Hormuz shock
February saw the West African raw cashew season open with lower floor prices, Türkiye and the UAE step up purchases of California almonds ahead of Ramadan, and US pistachio shipments accelerate. Expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop pulled prices lower and Asia–Mediterranean freight eased throughout the month; on 28 February, however, strikes on Iran halted transits through Hormuz, opening a new period of uncertainty for Gulf logistics.
Period: February 2026
Figures of the month
CFA 400/kgCôte d’Ivoire 2026 minimum farmgate price (2025: 425)Cashews
+56%California almond exports to Türkiye, JanuaryAlmonds
+261%California inshell walnuts to Türkiye, Sep–Jan (73.3 mn lb)In-shell walnuts
+32.3%US January pistachio shipments (96.7 mn lb)In-shell pistachios
West African raw cashew season opens with lower floor prices
Côte d’Ivoire set the minimum farmgate price for sorted, dried raw cashew nuts at CFA 400/kg for the 2026 marketing season launched on 6 February, about 6% below the 2025 level of CFA 425, with a possible upward revision at the end of April if market conditions improve. Ghana cut its 2025/26 floor price by 20%, from GH¢15 to GH¢12/kg. Campaigns in Benin, Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau have yet to open.
CFA 400/kgCôte d’Ivoire 2026 minimum farmgate price (2025: 425)
Sources (3)
Africa24 — Côte d’Ivoire Sets 2026 Cashew Farmgate Price at 400 CFA Francs 2026-02-09
Almond shipments slip as Türkiye and UAE buying rises
According to the Almond Board’s January report dated 12 February, California shipments fell 9.8% to 206.1 million lb and season-to-date shipments trailed by 7.1% at 1,276.6 million lb; commitments, however, rose 2.9% to 588 million lb and January new sales were up 24.8%. Ahead of Ramadan, January exports to Türkiye rose 56% and to the UAE 41%, while season to date the Middle East was up 4% and Morocco 24%, with Iraq down 23% and Libya 21%. In Egypt, the Chambers of Commerce reported Ramadan nut-mix sales down about 30% over three months, while cashew, pistachio and almond prices were largely steady year on year.
Türkiye, UAE and Iraq demand for California inshell walnuts soars
According to the California Walnut Board report released on 9 February, January inshell exports rose 231% to 30.7 million lb and September–January exports 61% to 179.4 million lb. Season to date, shipments to Türkiye rose 261% to 73.3 million lb and to the UAE 253% to 13.8 million lb, Iraq took 5.4 million lb (0.2 million a year earlier) and Morocco was up 31%. Kernel exports also climbed to 144.6 million lb (127.5 million a year earlier), and final receipts were confirmed at 807,347 short tons.
+261%California inshell walnuts to Türkiye, Sep–Jan (73.3 mn lb)
According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios report of 16 February, US January shipments rose 32.3% to 96.7 million lb and exports 52.1% to 65.9 million lb. September–January shipments reached 639.7 million lb (+23%), while marketable inventory fell 9.5% month on month to 876.0 million lb. Pricing was described as steady to firm.
ACP data released on 16 February show September–January kernel shipments of 53.2 million lb (kernel weight), 12.7% above the previous season and 34.7% above the five-year average. Adjusted kernel inventory at end-January was 101.2 million lb, 13% lower year on year, while marketable kernel inventory fell to 48.0 million lb (January 2025: 69.1 million).
Record Brazil crop outlook pushes coffee prices lower
In its first estimate on 5 February, CONAB put Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop at a record 66.2 million bags (+17.1%), with arabica up 23.3% at 44.1 million and conilon up 6.4% at 22.1 million. According to Cecafé, January exports fell 30.8% to 2.78 million bags, the lowest January since 2017/18, and the Cepea arabica indicator had fallen about 14% since the start of the year, robusta about 17%. Arabica futures traded around US$2.8/lb on 17 February, nearing their lowest since November 2024.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s January 2026 cashew exports of about 65,000 t worth US$434 mn rose more than 50% year on year, with average export prices slightly lower. In the record year of 2025, China, at US$1.1 bn, overtook the US (US$975 mn) as the largest market, while raw cashew imports exceeded 2.9 million t. As of 11 February, WW320 FOB Vietnam stood at US$6,850/t and WW240 at US$7,350/t.
US$6,850/tWW320 FOB Vietnam, 11 February
Sources (3)
Viet Nam News — Cashew exports surpass $5 billion for the first time 2026-01-26
Ukrainian sunflower seed prices rise as farmers hold back
According to a UkrAgroConsult report of 17 February based on GrainTrade data, sunflower seed purchase prices delivered to Ukrainian plants rose UAH 500/t to UAH 30,000–31,000/t (US$610–630/t excl. VAT, 50% oil content) as farmers limited sales. Sunflower oil demand prices delivered to ports rose to US$1,285–1,290/t, while oil exports totalled about 393,000 t in January. In Argentina, 36.4% of the area had been harvested by 12 February, with yields of 2.2 t/ha.
US$610–630/tUkrainian sunflower seed, delivered to plant (17 February)
Sources (1)
UkrAgroConsult (GrainTrade) — Sunseed prices in Ukraine continue to rise amid farmers’ sales restraint 2026-02-17
According to USDA NASS’s 26 February report, peanut stocks in commercial storage reached 5.55 billion lb (farmer stock equivalent) on 31 January, against 4.14 billion lb a year earlier. Season-to-date use of shelled edible-grade peanuts was down 4%, with 180 million lb used in January. The University of Georgia outlook revised on 13 February puts the average postharvest price at US$418/t and expects 2025/26 ending stocks of 948,000 t, among the highest in recent years.
5.55 bn lbUS commercial peanut stocks, 31 January (2025: 4.14)
Sources (2)
USDA NASS — Peanut Stocks and Processing (February 2026) 2026-02-26
Freight eased in February; Hormuz transits halted at month-end
According to Drewry’s WCI, the Shanghai–Genoa rate for a 40 ft container fell from US$3,048 on 5 February to US$2,826 on 26 February, while the composite index declined for a seventh straight week to US$1,899. After the US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February, the Revolutionary Guards announced that passage through the strait was not permitted; traders suspended Hormuz shipments, insurance premiums are expected to rise sharply and BIMCO anticipated that some owners would switch to the Cape of Good Hope route. On 12 February the CBRT raised its end-2026 inflation forecast range to 15–21%; USD/TRY closed the day at 43.68.
US$2,826/FEUShanghai–Genoa freight (Drewry WCI), 26 February
Sources (6)
gCaptain (Drewry) — Container Rates Slide for Fourth Week as Pre-Lunar New Year Surge Fizzles 2026-02-05
