Market bulletin · № 3 · March 2026

Hormuz shock: pistachios and freight up, ample hazelnut and cashew supply

March was the month the Iran war, which began on 28 February, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz shook nut trade into the Gulf; Iran’s halt of all food and agricultural exports on 3 March and shrinking US stocks supported pistachios, while emergency fuel surcharges pushed freight higher. By contrast, a record raw cashew supply, a first hazelnut estimate of 829,000 t and Eid-slowed trading kept supply comfortable in cashews, hazelnuts and sunflower.

Period: March 2026

Figures of the month

−28.2%US marketable kernel inventory, end-February (44.8 mn lb)Pistachios
196.1 mn lbCalifornia February exports (+23.5%, February record)Almonds
6.38 million tWorld raw cashew crop 2025/26 (INC, +19%)Cashews
829,239 tBlack Sea exporters’ first 2026 crop estimate (in-shell)Hazelnuts

Market overview

PistachiosRisingAlmondsMixedCashewsSteadyHazelnutsFallingIn-shell walnutsMixedPecan kernelsRisingBrazil nutsRisingMacadamiaSteadyGreen coffeeMixedPumpkin seedsSteadySunflower seedsFallingPeanutsMixedLogistics and freightRising

Pistachios Rising

Iran halts exports as US pistachio stocks shrink fast

From 3 March Iran halted exports of all food and agricultural products “until further notice”; according to USDA data, Iran accounts for about 18% of world pistachio output. The ACP’s February report, released on 16 March, showed US shipments up more than 30% year on year and exports up more than 40%, with crop receipts at a record 1.59 billion lb. Marketable kernel inventory at end-February stood at 44.8 million lb, 28.2% below a year earlier.

−28.2%US marketable kernel inventory, end-February (44.8 mn lb)

Sources (4)

Almonds Mixed

Almond exports set February record; war clouds demand

According to the Almond Board’s report of 12 March, February shipments rose 12.2% to 241.1 million lb; domestic sales fell 19.8% while exports set a February record. Shipments to Türkiye rose from 6.2 to 11.4 million lb in February, while those to the UAE fell from 11.9 to 9.2 million lb; season to date, Morocco is up 25% and the Middle East 5%. With Hormuz closed, one market analysis flagged a possible demand loss of about 50 million lb between March and July.

196.1 mn lbCalifornia February exports (+23.5%, February record)

Sources (4)

Cashews Steady

Record raw cashew supply; Vietnam exports up 12.8% in two months

The INC’s March report put the 2025/26 world raw cashew crop at a historic high of about 6.38 million t, up 19%, with Côte d’Ivoire at 1.5 million t and Cambodia at 930,000 t. Vietnam’s January–February cashew exports rose 12.8% in both volume and value to 74,900 t and US$513.48 mn, while the average export price was flat at US$6,857/t; the W320 reference price stood at US$7.2–7.5/kg on 17 March. VINACAS set a 2026 export target of about 800,000 t and US$5 bn, noting that raw nut supply is not as scarce as assumed but that new export restrictions and taxes in Africa are making imports more expensive.

6.38 million tWorld raw cashew crop 2025/26 (INC, +19%)

Sources (4)

Hazelnuts Falling

First estimate at 829,000 t; hazelnut prices ease

Based on the first flower count, the Black Sea hazelnut exporters’ unions estimated the 2026 crop at 829,239 t in-shell, while sales of 2022 and 2024 crop stocks by TMO and private sellers added to supply. FOB Istanbul natural kernels 11–13 mm eased from €10.52 to €10.40/kg on 16 March; on 28 March the free market in Giresun stood at TRY 230–260/kg and TMO at TRY 190–200/kg. Exporters say lira loan rates of 38–50% are straining cash flow and bringing more product onto the market.

829,239 tBlack Sea exporters’ first 2026 crop estimate (in-shell)

Sources (5)
  • Mundus Agri (KFMİB) — Hazelnuts: first crop estimate and consternation over TMO sales 2026-03-12
  • Mundus Agri — Hazelnuts: complaints over crop estimate 2026-03-19
  • Commodity Board — Hazelnuts in a Holding Pattern: Record Crop Story vs. Tight Kernels 2026-03-16
  • Mundus Agri — Hazelnuts: nervous glance at new season 2026-03-26
  • Haber Gazetesi — 28 Mart 2026 güncel fındık fiyatları 2026-03-28

In-shell walnuts Mixed

Record Middle East walnut demand as Chile season opens

According to California Walnuts data, US in-shell walnut shipments in February rose 77% to a record; season to date, shipments to the Middle East/Africa climbed from 32 to 131 million lb and exports to Türkiye nearly tripled. In Chile, ChileNut forecast the 2026 crop at about 165,000 t (the INC’s 2025/26 estimate is 175,000 t) and the new export season opened on 21 March. The war in the region makes the durability of this strong demand uncertain.

+77%US February in-shell walnut shipments (record)

Sources (3)

Pecan kernels Rising

INC cuts pecan estimate; prices firm

In its March report the INC cut its 2025/26 world in-shell pecan estimate from 314,930 t in November to 294,350 t, 2.5% below last year. Drought cut Mexico’s crop by 26.7% to 95,000 t, the US figure was left at 129,500 t, and South Africa harvested a record crop, up 34%. After rising sharply this season on Mexico’s shortfall and low carry-in, prices are expected to stay firm; 21% of US shelled pecan exports go to the Middle East.

−26.7%Mexico 2025/26 pecan crop (INC, 95,000 t)

Sources (2)

Brazil nuts Rising

Brazil nut supply down 37%; prices high

The INC’s March report confirmed 2025/26 world Brazil nut output at 63,060 t in-shell, down 37.1%; Bolivia’s crop fell 40% to 46,800 t and Peru’s 20% to 11,760 t. Raw material scarcity drove strong demand for the first lots of the 2026 crop, initial shipments were slower than expected, and a stronger boliviano led some suppliers to suspend forward sales. EU imports fell 32.7% in 2025 while the average price rose 71.6% to €10.93/kg; with an average 2026 harvest expected, prices could ease later.

€10.93/kgEU 2025 average import price (+71.6%)

Sources (1)

Macadamia Steady

Australia rebounds in macadamias; South Africa capped

On 5 March the Australian Macadamia Society forecast the 2026 crop at 59,080 t in-shell at 3.5% moisture, against 43,800 t in 2025. Macadamias South Africa put its 2026 crop at 81,660 t dry nut-in-shell (6.38% below 2024); China’s removal of its 12% import duty on South African macadamias was confirmed, while the strong rand is expected to reduce on-farm income by about 15%. In Australia, where harvest is under way, war-driven fuel prices are straining diesel supply, while traders say supply will not be an issue this season.

59,080 tAustralia 2026 forecast (AMS, in-shell, 3.5% moisture)

Sources (4)

Green coffee Mixed

Brazil exports fall; record-crop outlook caps Arabica

According to Cecafé data released on 10 March, Brazil’s February coffee exports fell 23.5% to 2.618 million bags, and the January–February total dropped 27.3% to 5.41 million bags. ICE Arabica climbed to about US$3.20/lb on 20 March, its highest since early February, on tighter short-term Brazilian supply and logistics risks, but slipped back to around US$2.90 by 30 March. StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast to a record 75.3 million bags.

75.3 million bagsBrazil 2026/27 crop forecast (StoneX, record)

Sources (3)
  • Agrolink (Cecafé) — Exportação de café do Brasil soma 2,6 mi de sacas e cai 23,5% em fev/2026 2026-03-10
  • Trading Economics — Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Month High 2026-03-20
  • Trading Economics — Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Week Low 2026-03-30

Pumpkin seeds Steady

Chinese pumpkin seed trade slow after New Year

After the Chinese New Year, trade in pumpkin seeds remained limited; remaining stocks are mostly held by traders and buyers are cautious. As of 4 March, GWS grade A kernels were indicated at about US$3.30/kg CFR European main ports and Shine Skin grade A at US$2.44/kg, with offers varying markedly by supplier. Processing plants in Xinjiang have restarted, while Gansu is focused on reducing stocks; this year’s planted area will set the price direction.

US$3.30/kgGWS grade A, CFR European main ports, 4 March

Sources (1)
  • Mundus Agri — Pumpkin seeds: trade remains subdued 2026-03-04

Sunflower seeds Falling

Larger EU sunflower crop expected; imports cheaper

Coceral forecast the EU’s 2026 sunflower crop at 9.489 million t; although about 4% below its December estimate, this would be a 10.4% increase on last year. From 1 July 2025 to 22 March 2026, EU imports of sunflower seed from third countries rose 21.2% to 550,708 t, while the average import price fell 9.8% to €0.92/kg. Shipments from Argentina to Bulgaria drove the increase, while still-high prices for hulled kernels are dampening demand.

9.489 million tEU 2026 sunflower crop forecast (Coceral, +10.4%)

Sources (2)
  • Mundus Agri (Coceral) — Sunflower seeds: contradictions weigh on the market 2026-03-18
  • Mundus Agri — Sunflower seeds: shipments from Argentina up 23-fold 2026-03-25

Peanuts Mixed

US peanut stocks high; plantings to fall 14%

According to USDA NASS’s report of 26 March, US peanut stocks in commercial storage reached 5.32 billion lb farmer-stock equivalent on 28 February, against 3.96 billion lb a year earlier. In the Prospective Plantings report of 31 March, growers intend to plant 1.67 million acres in 2026, down 14% from 2025, with Georgia, the largest producing state, down 15% to 780,000 acres. Ample current stocks and shrinking acreage point the market in different directions.

5.32 bn lbUS commercial peanut stocks, 28 February (last year 3.96 bn lb)

Sources (2)
  • USDA NASS — Peanut Stocks and Processing (March 2026) 2026-03-26
  • USDA NASS — Prospective Plantings (March 2026) 2026-03-31

Logistics and freight Rising

Hormuz shut; Gulf cargo diverted to alternative ports

After the strikes that began on 28 February, the Strait of Hormuz was largely closed to commercial traffic; carriers began routing Gulf cargo through ports in Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and India with onward land legs, and emergency fuel surcharges of US$300–500/FEU took effect. The Freightos Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) jumped 15% on the week to US$4,300 on 17 March, then fell 8% to US$3,800 by 31 March, only US$100 above pre-war levels; further rate increases were announced for April. The CBRT held its policy rate at 37% on 12 March, citing geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices; USD/TRY stood at 44.47 on the morning of 31 March, up 1.22% from the start of the month.

US$4,300/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), 17 March peak

Sources (5)
  • Freightos — Ocean braces for wave of Iran-war surcharges – March 17, 2026 Update 2026-03-17
  • Freightos — Still no ocean rate spike though more increases set for April – March 31, 2026 Update 2026-03-31
  • Mundus Agri — US nuts: demand disruptions 2026-03-10
  • Capital — Merkez Bankası'nın Mart 2026 faiz kararı belli oldu 2026-03-12
  • Bloomberg HT — Dolar ne kadar oldu? 31 Mart 2026 dolar kurunda son durum ne? 2026-03-31

This bulletin is an informational summary compiled from public sources and does not constitute commercial advice. Request a quote for current prices.

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