Market bulletin · № 5 · May 2026

Hormuz shut: pistachios and cashews firm, coffee and macadamias ease

May was another month in which the Strait of Hormuz, closed since early March, shaped Gulf trade, fuel costs and freight. Pistachios heading into a US off-year, Vietnamese cashews above US$7,000/t and tight Black Sea seed supply supported prices, while Brazil’s expected record coffee harvest and growing macadamia supply pulled prices lower; at month-end, Asia–Mediterranean freight jumped 20% in a week.

Period: May 2026

Figures of the month

−36.4%World 2026/27 pistachio output forecast (701,050 t)Pistachios
2.7 bn lbUSDA NASS 2026 California crop forecast (−1%)Almonds
>US$7,000/tVietnam average kernel export price, April (first since March 2020)Cashews
66.7 mn bagsBrazil 2026 crop, CONAB 2nd estimate (record)Green coffee

Market overview

PistachiosRisingAlmondsMixedCashewsRisingGreen coffeeFallingSunflower seedsRisingHazelnutsSteadyWalnutsMixedMacadamiaFallingPumpkin seedsRisingPecan kernelsFallingRaisinsFallingPeanutsSteadyLogistics and freightRising

Pistachios Rising

US enters off-year as world pistachio supply tightens

According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, US exports fell 9.6% year on year in April to 50.7 million lb while domestic shipments rose 16.9%; total shipments since September are 18.8% ahead at 928.3 million lb. According to a forecast reported by Mundus Agri on 19 May, world output will fall 36.4% to 701,050 t in 2026/27: the US is expected to drop to 350,000 t (−51.6%) and Iran to 130,000 t (−42.2%), while Türkiye, in an on-year, is seen rising to 156,400 t (+36.5%). In the Netherlands, FCA whole kernels rose to €19.50/kg.

−36.4%World 2026/27 pistachio output forecast (701,050 t)

Sources (3)

Almonds Mixed

California almond crop edges lower, Spain grows

According to the subjective forecast released by USDA NASS on 12 May, California’s 2026 almond crop will fall 1% to 2.7 billion lb, with yield flat at 1,940 lb per acre and bearing area at 1,385,870 acres. In the Almond Board’s April report, monthly shipments fell 9% to 219.9 million lb and exports 11% to 167.3 million lb; season to date, shipments to Türkiye rose 35% and to Morocco 38%, while those to the UAE fell 20% and to Iraq and Libya about 20%. In Spain, the sector’s first estimate on 28 May put the crop at 135,250 t of kernels (+6.6%).

2.7 bn lbUSDA NASS 2026 California crop forecast (−1%)

Sources (4)

Cashews Rising

Vietnam cashew price tops $7,000 as Gulf demand stalls

Vietnam’s average kernel export price rose above US$7,000/t in April for the first time since March 2020; April exports were about 61,100 t worth US$433 million. Shipments to the Middle East almost stopped in April: Iraq imported no kernels in March–April and UAE purchases fell 65.3% in January–April, while VINACAS expects 2026 exports of about US$5 billion, below the 2025 record. Raw nut imports reached 1.24 million t in January–April, and in mid-May WW320 FOB Hanoi was flat at €6.30–6.50/kg.

>US$7,000/tVietnam average kernel export price, April (first since March 2020)

Sources (3)
  • DTiNews (Dân Trí, VINACAS) — Vietnam cuts cashew export target despite strong first quarter 2026-05-13
  • Commodity Board — Cashew Market Turns Firmly Bullish as Vietnam Prices Break Above $7,000/t 2026-05-13
  • Commodity Board — Cashew Kernels: Slight Softening in India & EU While Vietnam Holds Firm 2026-05-16

Green coffee Falling

Record Brazil coffee outlook weighs on prices

In its second estimate on 21 May, CONAB put Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop at 66.7 million bags, up 18% and the highest in its series. Arabica is expected at 45.8 million bags (+28%) and conilon at 20.9 million. According to Cecafé, April exports were flat at 3.12 million bags while revenue fell 17.7% to US$1.11 billion; the ICO composite indicator averaged 266.24 US cents/lb in April, down 2.7%.

66.7 mn bagsBrazil 2026 crop, CONAB 2nd estimate (record)

Sources (4)

Sunflower seeds Rising

Black Sea sunflower seed runs short, prices firm

In Ukraine, old-crop seed stocks are running out and crushing margins turned negative by US$20–25/t; some plants have idled or switched to rapeseed and soybeans. Domestic seed rose to UAH 31,500–33,000/t, while Black Sea sunflower oil eased slightly to US$1,315–1,320/t. Russia had sown about half of its planned 10.9 million ha by mid-May and Ukrainian planting was delayed by cool weather; the Hormuz-driven energy shock is supporting vegetable oils through biofuel demand.

€0.65–0.66/kgUkrainian black seed, FCA Odesa/Kyiv, 28 May

Sources (2)
  • Commodity Board — Sunflower Margins Turn Negative as Ukrainian Processors Face Seed Shortage 2026-05-22
  • Commodity Board — Sunflower Market Firm: Oilseed Complex Supports Seeds Amid Gulf Energy Shock 2026-05-28

Hazelnuts Steady

Hazelnut exports weak, weather favourable for new crop

FOB Istanbul natural kernels 11–13 mm rose from €7.96/kg on 12 May to €8.10/kg on 25 May, while 13–15 mm held at €8.43–8.48/kg. Türkiye’s hazelnut exports in the first months of 2026 were down about 31%, reflecting last year’s weather damage and cautious buyers. No serious frost damage was reported in the Black Sea region through April and May, and conditions for the 2026/27 crop are broadly favourable.

€8.10/kgNatural kernels 11–13 mm, FOB Istanbul, 25 May

Sources (2)
  • Commodity Board — Hazelnut Prices Soften as Turkish Exports Slump and Georgia Holds Firm 2026-05-12
  • Commodity Board — Georgia’s Hazelnut Exports Gain Momentum as EU Demand Lifts Kernel Prices 2026-05-25

Walnuts Mixed

Chile new crop priced in wide range; Chinese kernels soft

In Chile, new-crop inshell walnut offers span a wide FAS range of US$2.90–3.60/lb; early-season quality is variable and the crop size is not yet clear. In early May, Indian wholesale prices stood at €5.40–6.20/kg for Chilean inshell 30–34 mm and €4.70–4.90/kg for California Chandler. Chinese kernel prices eased slightly over the month; at month-end, FOB Dalian light quarters were about €2.99/kg and light pieces 8–12 mm €2.52/kg.

US$2.90–3.60/lbChile new-crop inshell offers, FAS

Sources (3)
  • Commodity Board — Walnut Market Holds Firm as Chilean New Crop Tests Buyers’ Nerves 2026-05-06
  • Commodity Board — Walnut Market Holds Firm as Chilean Crop Sets Price Ceiling 2026-05-13
  • Commodity Board — Walnut Kernels Hold Steady as China Underpins a Soft but Stable Market 2026-05-31

Macadamia Falling

Large Australian macadamia crop weighs on prices

Global macadamia supply is expected to rise about 15% in 2026 to nearly 393,000 t in-shell, led by Australia, South Africa, China and East Africa. Australia is heading for a record-level harvest as young orchards mature and recover from 2025 weather damage, with fewer rejects. Demand is growing but more slowly than supply: farm-gate prices are subdued, stocks are comfortable and US tariffs keep buyers cautious.

~393,000 tGlobal 2026 macadamia supply, in-shell basis (+15%)

Sources (2)
  • Commodity Board — Australian Macadamias: Bigger 2026 Crop Meets Softer Global Prices 2026-05-28
  • Commodity Board — Australian Macadamias: Big 2026 Crop Meets Softer Global Prices 2026-05-29

Pumpkin seeds Rising

China pumpkin seeds: old crop tight, planted area down

China’s old-crop market is tight: on 28 May FOB Beijing Shine Skin AA conventional stood at €3.34–3.36/kg, organic at €3.51–3.53/kg and GWS AA at about €2.92/kg. Planted area fell in Tacheng and Changji in Xinjiang and in parts of Bayannur; planting is complete and field damage is limited. New crop will arrive from Dengkou from September and from Xinjiang and Gansu in October; prices are expected to stay firm until then.

€3.34–3.36/kgShine Skin AA conventional, FOB Beijing, 28 May

Sources (1)
  • Commodity Board — China Pumpkin Seeds: Firm Old-Crop Market Ahead of Stable New Season 2026-05-28

Pecan kernels Falling

US pecan shipments weak as inventory builds

According to American Pecan Council data for March, reported on 5 May, US pecan shipments fell 21% year on year to 25.1 million lb, 34% below the five-year average; exports were 6.0 million lb. Season-to-date shipments are down 11% at 226.9 million lb, while receipts are up 7% at 273.3 million lb. Inventory rose 6% to 262.8 million lb, while commitments fell 13%.

−21%US pecan shipments in March (25.1 mn lb), APC

Sources (1)

Raisins Falling

Raisin exports down; large new crop expected

According to Türkiye’s dried fruit exporters’ sector board, seedless raisin exports were US$166 million in 1 January–15 May, while total dried fruit exports fell 17% in volume and 11% in value over the same period. The 2025/26 crop was about 165,000 t, and the market is informally discussing around 300,000 t for 2026/27. Type 9 FOB prices held steady, while TMO’s reference sale of type 8 at TRY 100 has led growers to expect at least TRY 120 in the new season.

US$166 mnTürkiye seedless raisin exports, 1 Jan–15 May

Sources (3)
  • Ekonomi Gazetesi — Türkiye Kuru Meyve ve Mamulleri İhracatçı Birlikleri Sektör Kurulu Başkanı Şemsettin Özgür oldu 2026-05-19
  • Commodity Board — Turkish Raisins Steady as New-Season Prep and Zero-Residue Focus Gain Pace 2026-05-13
  • Commodity Board — Turkish Raisin Prices Flat but New-Crop Optimism Caps Upside 2026-05-20

Peanuts Steady

Record Indian groundnut crop; prices in narrow range

India’s Agriculture Ministry put 2025/26 groundnut output at a record 13.07 million t, and summer sowing reached 551,000 ha by 22 May, up 131,000 ha. At the end of May, Bold 40/50 FOB Gondal was about €1.05/kg and Brazilian raw FOB about €1.24/kg. Ample supply is capping prices, while higher kharif support prices and thin arrivals due to heat in Gujarat provide mild support.

13.07 mn tIndia 2025/26 groundnut output (Agriculture Ministry, record)

Sources (2)

Logistics and freight Rising

Hormuz stays shut; Asia–Med freight jumps at month-end

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since early March; carriers are expected to be slow to resume regular Gulf port calls until the region is deemed safe, and Red Sea diversions continue. According to Freightos, Asia–Mediterranean (FBX13) went from US$3,600/FEU on 19 May to about US$4,400/FEU on 26 May, up 20% in a week and above its March high, while Asia–North Europe was around US$2,900/FEU. Drewry’s WCI rose 3% to US$2,800/FEU on 28 May and Shanghai–Genoa 4% to US$4,253/FEU; on 31 May USD/TRY stood at 45.91 and EUR/TRY at 53.38.

~US$4,400/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), 26 May, +20% w/w

Sources (5)
  • MTS Insights (Drewry WCI) — Drewry World Container Index: Week of May 28th 2026-05-28
  • Freightos — Demand rebound pushing rates up for early start to ocean peak season – May 26, 2026 Update 2026-05-26
  • Freightos — Early start to peak season for Asia–Europe ocean – May 19, 2026 Update 2026-05-19
  • Freightos — Asia–Europe container rates slide, transpac more buoyant – May 5, 2026 Update 2026-05-05
  • Ulusal Kanal — Dolar ve Euro’da pazar tabelası! 31 Mayıs 2026 dolar ve euro bugün kaç TL oldu? 2026-05-31

This bulletin is an informational summary compiled from public sources and does not constitute commercial advice. Request a quote for current prices.

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