Ahead of harvest: ample hazelnuts and raisins, freight off its peak
July was the month in which supply expectations for the new season came into focus. In Türkiye, strong crop prospects for hazelnuts and sultanas kept prices flat to lower, while in California brisk shipments of almonds, pistachios and walnuts drew down stocks; Asia–Mediterranean freight rose above US$7,000 per 40 ft early in the month before easing towards month-end.
Hazelnuts: 100,000 t gap between two crop estimates
The Ministry of Agriculture’s provincial commissions put the 2026 in-shell hazelnut crop at 704,941 t, while the Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Union (KFMİB) announced 805,246 t; about 68,000 t of the gap comes from the Ordu estimate alone. TurkStat’s first forecast of 715,350 t is 62% above last year’s 441,000 t. FOB Istanbul natural kernels 11–13 mm recovered from about €6.82/kg at the end of June to hold flat at around €7.65/kg in the second half of the month, as the market awaits the TMO purchase price.
According to Commodity Board, Türkiye’s new-season sultana crop is projected at about 320,000 t with roughly 20,000 t of carry-in stock, and exports next season are expected at around 280,000 t. On the large-crop outlook, type 8 grade A FOB fell from about €2.85 to €2.20/kg during July, with mainstream grades at €2.13–2.31/kg. On 20 July Iran issued its 14th exemption list, removing raisins from its blanket ban on agricultural exports.
€2.20/kgSultanas type 8 grade A FOB, 29 July (from 2.85 during the month)
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — Turkish Raisins Face Pressure: Big New Crop, Weak Prices, Weather Risk 2026-07-29
Global Trade Alert — Iran: Exemption of 15 agricultural products from export ban 2026-07-20
US pistachio stocks fall fast ahead of off-year crop
According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, US June shipments rose 15.7% to 103.8 million lb, with exports up 20.5% to 71.4 million lb. Shipments for the first ten months of the season reached 1.13 billion lb (+18.1%), while marketable inventory fell 22% in a month to 381.6 million lb. With a smaller 2026/27 off-year crop expected, prices have been flat for four weeks with a firm undertone.
−22%US marketable pistachio inventory, June (381.6 mn lb)
Sources (2)
FreshPlaza (ACP) — U.S. pistachio shipments rise 15.7% in June 2026-07-21
Almond season ends on a strong June as stocks tighten
According to the Almond Board’s June report released on 9 July, shipments rose 14.1% to 213.0 million lb; exports were up 20.6% and total commitments 18% higher. Season to date, shipments to Türkiye rose 42% and to Morocco 49%, while those to the UAE fell 24%. Uncommitted inventory was 17.8% lower than a year earlier, and the market cut its carryout expectation from over 600 million lb to around 500 million lb.
According to May data reported by Commodity Board, US in-shell walnut shipments reached 12.86 million lb, more than double the 5.56 million lb of a year earlier, while kernel shipments rose 23% to 39.3 million lb and demand from Türkiye and the Middle East remained strong. Firmer Chinese kernel prices in mid-July and hot, dry weather in California supported prices.
12.86 million lbUS in-shell walnut shipments, May (2025: 5.56 million lb)
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — Walnut Market Tightens as U.S. Shipments Surge and Prices Firm 2026-07-21
Commodity Board — Walnut Market Tightens as US In-Shell Exports Surge to Turkey and MENA 2026-07-28
West African season winds down; cashew prices flat
Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026 raw cashew crop is estimated at 1.35–1.40 million t, the second largest on record, but quality is weaker; Ghana’s crop is smaller and of lower quality. With sellers holding stocks, raw nut prices stayed firm at about US$1,550/t in Côte d’Ivoire and US$1,720/t in Guinea-Bissau. Vietnam W320 FOB held flat at US$3.10–3.35/lb and W240 at US$3.45–3.60/lb, while high Asian freight is watched as an upside risk.
US$3.10–3.35/lbVietnam W320 FOB, late July
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — Cashew Market Tightens as West African Crop Winds Down 2026-07-24
Commodity Board — Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Vietnam Export Strength Meets Steady Indian Demand 2026-07-24
Chinese pumpkin seed old crop nearly gone; top grades firm
According to Commodity Board, old-crop pumpkin seed stocks in China are almost exhausted and buyers are covering only immediate needs. Top grades such as Shine Skin AA held firm, while GWS and lower grades traded flat to slightly softer. Prolonged heat in Xinjiang and Gansu poses local yield and quality risks; with the harvest spread from late August to early October, meaningful supply relief is not expected before the fourth quarter.
Late AugustStart of China’s new-crop harvest (runs to early October)
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — China Pumpkin Seed Market: Old-Crop Floor Meets Weather Risk for New Season 2026-07-10
Commodity Board — Chinese Pumpkin Seed Kernels Edge Higher as Old-Crop Tightness Persists 2026-07-18
Coffee rebounds from lows on Brazil rain and El Niño
According to the ICO’s June report released on 13 July, the composite indicator price (I-CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June, down 2.8%; however, after hitting a near two-year low of 231.96 cents on 9 June, it rose 17.4% to 272.39 cents by month-end. The rebound was driven by heavy rain slowing Brazil’s harvest and expectations of a “super El Niño”. US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024.
+17.4%ICO composite price, 9 June low to month-end (272.39 ¢/lb)
Australia trims macadamia forecast, but supply still rises
On 15 July the Australian Macadamia Society cut its 2026 crop forecast from 59,080 t to 56,888 t (in-shell at 3.5% moisture) as rain delayed the harvest; the crop is nevertheless well above 2025’s 43,800 t. According to Der AUDITOR, South Africa’s crop is expected at 93,000–95,000 t in-shell, well above last year. Low stocks support prices in the short term, but rising harvest supply over the next two to three months is expected to ease prices gradually, especially for lower-grade kernels.
Record global sunflower crop expected; seed prices flat
According to Commodity Board, world sunflower seed output in 2026/27 is expected to rise about 12% to more than 62 million t, led by Ukraine and Russia; Ukraine alone is seen at 13–13.5 million t. Ukrainian black seed FCA Kyiv/Odesa has held flat at about €0.62/kg for four weeks and Bulgarian seed stands at €0.59/kg, while crude sunflower oil is under pressure from cheaper rapeseed oil and the large-crop outlook. Attacks on Black Sea and Azov routes are raising freight risk, while early-summer heat damage in Ukraine appears limited so far.
62+ mn t2026/27 world sunflower seed output expected (+12%)
Sources (1)
Commodity Board — Ayçiçeği Pazarı: Rekor Ürün Beklentisiyle Tohumlar Güçlü, Yağ Daha Zayıf 2026-07-17
Logistics and freight Mixed
Asia–Mediterranean freight tops US$7,000, then eases
Freightos’ Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) rose 11% on the week to more than US$7,000 per 40 ft on 8 July and eased to US$6,697 on 29 July; Drewry’s Shanghai–Genoa rate likewise slipped from its monthly high of US$6,463 on 9 July to US$5,988 on 24 July. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and tensions that could delay a return to the Red Sea kept a risk premium in place. The CBRT held its policy rate at 37% on 23 July; USD/TRY stood at around 47.52 on the morning of 31 July.
US$7,000+/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), early July
Sources (6)
Freightos — Container rates jump another $1k/FEU – but is demand peaking? – July 8, 2026 Update 2026-07-09
Freightos — Freight rate update for July 29th – July 29, 2026 Update 2026-07-29
