Market bulletin · № 8 · August 2026

TMO sets a hazelnut floor as California pistachio supply halves

August was the month new-season price anchors took shape: TMO set a TRY 255/kg hazelnut floor, California’s pistachio crop is expected at around half of last year’s, the US peanut forecast fell 24.5% and the almond season closed with leaner stocks. Expectations of large new crops weighed on Black Sea sunflower and Turkish raisins, while Asia–Mediterranean freight eased during the month, although Hormuz-related fuel surcharges kept cost risks alive.

Period: August 2026

Figures of the month

TRY 255/kgTMO purchase price, Giresun quality (2026)Hazelnuts
+45%2025/26 shipments to Türkiye (156.6 mn lb)Almonds
600–800 mn lbUS 2026/27 crop expectation (2025: ~1.6 bn lb)Pistachios
US$7,151/tVietnam July average kernel export price (+5.7%)Cashews

Market overview

HazelnutsFallingAlmondsRisingPistachiosRisingCashewsSteadyWalnutsMixedPumpkin seedsSteadyPeanutsRisingRaisinsFallingSunflower seedsFallingGreen coffeeMixedMacadamiaSteadyPecan kernelsMixedBrazil nutsFallingLogistics and freightMixed

Hazelnuts Falling

TMO sets TRY 255 hazelnut floor; FOB prices ease

On 6 August TMO announced its 2026 purchase prices at TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality and TRY 250/kg for Levant; buying began on 24 August, with payment starting 21 days after delivery. Crop estimates diverge, at 704,941 t from the Ministry of Agriculture and 805,246 t from the Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Union, while the free market stood below TMO at TRY 175–190/kg late in the month. FOB Istanbul natural kernels 11–13 mm eased from €7.62/kg on 1 August to €7.36/kg on 24 August.

TRY 255/kgTMO purchase price, Giresun quality (2026)

Sources (5)
  • BirGün — 2026 TMO Fındık Fiyatları | TMO Fındık Alım Fiyatlarını Açıkladı 2026-08-06
  • Uzmanpara / Milliyet — 2026 TMO fındık alım fiyatı ne kadar oldu? Levant ve Giresun kalite fındık fiyatları kaç TL? 2026-08-07
  • Ekonomi Gazetesi — Fındıkta iki rekolte, 100 bin tonluk fark 2026-07-30
  • Commodity Board — Turkish hazelnuts hold firm as market waits for new-crop signals 2026-08-01
  • Commodity Board — Hazelnuts at a crossroads: wide Turkey price gap, limited downside 2026-08-24

Almonds Rising

California almond season closes with leaner stocks

With the July report released by the Almond Board on 11 August, the 2025/26 season closed with 2.63 billion lb shipped; exports rose 3% to 2.03 billion lb, carry-out fell 4% to 494.2 million lb and uncommitted inventory was 17% lower. Shipments to Türkiye rose 45%, to Morocco 49% and to Algeria 19%, while those to the UAE fell 24% and to Libya 19%. USDA NASS’s 12 August report puts the 2026 crop at 2.70 billion lb (2025: 2.715 billion), and market sources expect prices to hold or firm through at least October.

+45%2025/26 shipments to Türkiye (156.6 mn lb)

Sources (3)
  • Almond Board of California — July 2026 Almond Industry Position Report 2026-08-11
  • FreshPlaza — California almond shipments rise 3.3% as 2025/26 season closes 2026-08-13
  • USDA NASS — Crop Production (August 2026) 2026-08-12

Pistachios Rising

California pistachio crop set to halve; prices rise

California’s 2026/27 crop, damaged by spring heat, is expected at 600–800 million lb, around half of last season’s roughly 1.6 billion lb; no official industry estimate has been published yet. Harvest started in mid-August, weeks earlier than usual, and market participants say wholesale prices for California-origin product are being revised up 25–30%. According to ACP data, July shipments rose 11.2% year on year to 86.0 million lb, with exports up 31.4%; marketable inventory fell to 298.7 million lb at end-July.

600–800 mn lbUS 2026/27 crop expectation (2025: ~1.6 bn lb)

Sources (2)
  • Commodity Board — California pistachio crop collapse triggers global supply shock and price rerating 2026-08-13
  • FreshPlaza (ACP) — U.S. pistachio shipments rise 17.1% through July 2026-08-26

Cashews Steady

Vietnam cashew: flat volumes, rising value

According to Vietnam Customs, about 71,000 t of cashew kernels were exported in July for US$505 million (volume +3.7%, value +9.7%); in January–July volume was flat at 412,000 t while value rose 3.3% to US$2.9 billion. China was the largest market at about 100,000 t. Raw cashew imports fell 13.7% in July to 255,888 t, while the average import price rose 6.7% to about US$1,572/t; kernel prices moved sideways in a quiet market.

US$7,151/tVietnam July average kernel export price (+5.7%)

Sources (3)

Walnuts Mixed

Chile in-shell exports drop; China harvest begins

According to ChileNut data, Chile exported 9,900 t of in-shell walnuts in July (−31%), while kernel exports rose 16% to 5,422 t; total April–July exports in in-shell equivalent fell 3% to 70,221 t. Season to date, in-shell shipments to India rose 90% and to Morocco 141%, while those to Türkiye fell 49% and the Middle East/Africa total halved. Harvesting is under way in China; CFR European main port prices held firm at US$5,160/t for ELH 80% (Xin2) and softened to US$4,890/t for ELH 90% (185).

−31%Chile July in-shell walnut exports (9,900 t)

Sources (1)

Pumpkin seeds Steady

China pumpkin seeds: stocks run down ahead of new crop

China’s carry-over stock has fallen to about 60,000 t against a typical level of around 200,000 t, with roasting and export demand at roughly 15,000 t a month. New crop is expected from September, with excessive rain, early frost and disease seen as the main risks. At end-August FOB Beijing Shine Skin AA eased from €3.45–3.48/kg to €3.38/kg and GWS AA from €3.10–3.13/kg to €3.06/kg; China supplied about 62% of world pumpkin seed exports in 2025, with the UAE the largest buyer.

€3.38/kgShine Skin AA, FOB Beijing, late August

Sources (1)
  • Commodity Board — China pumpkin seeds: vanishing stocks meet firm export demand 2026-08-26

Peanuts Rising

US peanut crop to shrink by a quarter

USDA NASS’s first estimate on 12 August puts 2026 US peanut production at 5.42 billion lb, 24.5% below last year; planted area fell 27% to 1.425 million acres, while yield rose to 3,956 lb per acre. Expana’s analysis of USDA data puts 2026/27 ending stocks 32% lower at 903,000 t, though the large carry-in cushions the impact. Sellers are holding firm on price and new-crop offers are limited.

−24.5%US 2026 peanut production forecast (5.42 bn lb)

Sources (2)
  • USDA NASS — Crop Production (August 2026) 2026-08-12
  • Expana — US peanut new-crop output cut 25%, carryover cushions the impact 2026-08-21

Raisins Falling

Big raisin crop ahead; market awaits TMO price

Trade sources estimate the 2026 sultana crop at about 320,000 t and exports at 280,000 t; according to the Manisa Commodity Exchange, last season’s Aegean crop was 164,000 t and 130,000 t had been exported for US$429 million by end-July. Type 8 FOB fell from about €2.85/kg in early July to €2.20/kg on 29 July, and in mid-August type 9 FOB held at around €2.05/kg. On 17 August farmers’ chambers urged TMO to announce a floor price without delay, and the market spent August waiting for the decision.

~320,000 tTürkiye 2026 sultana crop estimate (trade)

Sources (4)
  • Commodity Board — Turkish raisins face pressure: big new crop, weak prices, weather risk 2026-07-29
  • Gazete Vatan (İHA) — Manisa Ticaret Borsası'ndan üzüm üreticisine kritik uyarı: Erken hasat yapan yandı 2026-07-31
  • Commodity Board — Turkish raisin prices hold steady as new crop approaches 2026-08-13
  • Yeni Birlik Gazetesi — Kuru üzüm üreticilerinden taban fiyat için acil çağrı 2026-08-17

Sunflower seeds Falling

Black Sea sunflower falls under harvest pressure

Ukrainian black sunflower seed FCA fell from about €0.62/kg at end-July to €0.49/kg on 28 August, and Bulgarian FCA Sofia from €0.60 to €0.47/kg. Attacks on the Odesa region have severely disrupted Ukrainian crushing and exports, while Türkiye’s decision to bring forward the cut in its sunflower seed import duty from 20% to 12% to 1 October, instead of 30 November, could revive demand. Market estimates suggest Ukraine could ship up to 200,000 t to Türkiye in September–November.

€0.49/kgUkraine black seed FCA, 28 August (end-July: 0.62)

Sources (3)
  • Commodity Board — Sunflower market: war-damaged logistics cap prices but set floor for new crop 2026-08-12
  • Commodity Board — Sunflower market softens as harvest pressure meets weather risks 2026-08-28
  • Commodity Board — Turkey's early tariff cut puts sunflower market on alert 2026-08-28

Green coffee Mixed

Brazil exports recover as arabica stocks hit lows

According to Cecafé, Brazil exported 3.03 million bags of coffee in July (+9.9%), although foreign-exchange revenue fell 13.2% to US$903.9 million; January–July exports were down 5.9% at 20.9 million bags. The removal of US tariffs on Brazilian coffee raises the prospect of a recovery in US purchases, which are down 30.5% year to date. Arabica futures traded near US$3.3/lb on 17 August, close to their highest since late July; the harvest was 90% complete as of 12 August, behind last year’s 97%, and ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.75-year low of 231,445 bags.

3.03 million bagsBrazil July exports (Cecafé, +9.9%)

Sources (2)

Macadamia Steady

Global macadamia supply grows; Kenyan prices flat

Global in-shell macadamia supply is projected to rise from 341,000 t in 2025 to about 393,000 t in 2026, led by China, South Africa and Australia. In Kenya, 2026-crop organic kernel offers FOB stood at €23.5–24.5/kg, flat to 1% higher than in mid-August. Kenya exports about 7,000–8,000 t a year, more than 10% of world trade.

€23.5–24.5/kgKenyan organic macadamia kernels, FOB, 2026 crop (late August)

Sources (1)
  • Commodity Board — Kenyan organic macadamias hold steady as global supply rises 2026-08-27

Pecan kernels Mixed

China imposes anti-dumping deposits on US and Mexican pecans

Under a preliminary ruling by China’s Ministry of Commerce, provisional deposits of 54.3% on US-origin pecans and 17.8–51.6% on Mexican pecans, depending on the company, have applied since 11 August; US pecan exports to China totalled 11,017 t in 2024. In Mexico, conventional pecan halves FOB Mexico City held steady at about €24.70/kg late in the month, with 2025/26 Mexican output down from 64,800 t to about 47,500 t on a kernel basis. US export flows to Asia weakened while Europe and the Middle East took a larger share.

54.3%China’s provisional anti-dumping deposit on US pecans (from 11 August)

Sources (2)
  • FreshPlaza — China imposes preliminary tariffs of up to 54.3% on U.S. pecans 2026-08-12
  • Commodity Board — Mexican pecans hold steady as China duties reshape export flows 2026-08-27

Brazil nuts Falling

Brazil nut crop recovers as supply rebounds

According to INC data from July, 2026/27 in-shell Brazil nut production is set to rise 80.9% to 105,300 t: Bolivia 80,100 t (+78%), Peru 16,500 t and Brazil 8,700 t. The comparison uses a revised 58,200 t for the previous season; in March the INC had put 2025/26 output at 63,060 t. In the Netherlands, Bolivian Brazil nut kernels trade FCA at €13.50/kg for mediums and €12.75/kg for midgets, and the market expects prices to follow the growing supply.

105,300 tBrazil nut 2026/27 in-shell output forecast (INC, +80.9%)

Sources (1)

Logistics and freight Mixed

Asia–Med freight eases as Hormuz risk lingers

The Freightos Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) fell from about US$6,000 on 6 August to about US$5,000 per 40 ft on 25 August, after a 15% weekly drop; it had been above US$7,000 in early July. According to Drewry, Shanghai–Genoa also eased from US$5,506 to US$4,866; after the June ceasefire collapsed and Iran–US hostilities resumed, several carriers applied emergency fuel surcharges from August while Hormuz transits stayed minimal, and MSC joined the major carriers routing through the southern Red Sea. The CBRT selling rate for USD/TRY rose from 47.43 on 31 July to 48.26 on 31 August (+1.8%).

~US$5,000/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), 25 August (July peak: over US$7,000)

Sources (8)
  • Freightos — Transpac peak may stretch on even as Asia - Europe ocean cools - August 6, 2026 Update 2026-08-07
  • Freightos — New US - CA tariffs, and sanctions for Iran which could rock US-CN boat - August 25, 2026 Update 2026-08-25
  • Freightos — Hormuz hopes dashed; Asia - Europe and transpac ocean rates diverge on extended US peak - August 11, 2026 Update 2026-08-11
  • Drewry (MTS Insights) — Drewry World Container Index: Week of August 6th 2026-08-06
  • Drewry (Hellenic Shipping News) — Drewry: World Container Index – 20 Aug 2026-08-21
  • Drewry (MTS Insights) — Drewry World Container Index: Week of August 27th 2026-08-27
  • TCMB — Gösterge niteliğindeki Merkez Bankası kurları – 31.07.2026 2026-07-31
  • TCMB — Gösterge niteliğindeki Merkez Bankası kurları – 31.08.2026 2026-08-31

This bulletin is an informational summary compiled from public sources and does not constitute commercial advice. Request a quote for current prices.

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