Harvest under way: almonds and pumpkin seeds firm, hazelnuts and sunflower ease
September saw new-season supply begin to reach the market across the northern hemisphere. Strong California shipments and exhausted Chinese pumpkin seed stocks supported prices, while the completed Black Sea hazelnut harvest and ample sunflower supply pulled prices lower; Asia–Mediterranean freight fell sharply from its July peak as Red Sea transits increased.
Period: September 2026
Figures of the month
+20.5%California August shipments (190.1 mn lb)Almonds
€6.91/kgNatural kernels 11–13 mm, FOB IstanbulHazelnuts
California almond season opens with strong shipments
According to the Almond Board’s August report released on 10 September, the 2026/27 season opened with 190.1 million lb shipped (+20.5%), and exports rose 31%. Shipments to Türkiye were up 113%, while those to the UAE fell 63% and to Morocco 42%. Trade sources lowered their crop expectations to 2.55–2.65 billion lb and prices rose 30–40 cents/lb in a month; in Spain the harvest started about ten days early.
TMO began buying on 24 August at TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality and TRY 250/kg for Levant, while the free market stayed TRY 50–100 below those levels throughout September, at TRY 150–205/kg. According to the Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Union, 197,085 t were exported in the 2025/26 season for US$2.51 bn; volume fell 36% while value per tonne rose. FOB Istanbul natural kernels 11–13 mm eased from €6.97 to €6.91/kg.
€6.91/kgNatural kernels 11–13 mm, FOB Istanbul
Sources (3)
Capital (KFMİB) — Türkiye, geçen sezon fındık ihracatından 2,5 milyar dolar gelir sağladı 2026-09-04
China pumpkin seeds: old stock gone, top grades tight
China entered the new season with about 65,000 t of old stock against monthly use of about 15,000 t, leaving almost no buffer. Planted area rose to 1.375 million mu and the crop is estimated at about 240,000 t. On 24 September FOB Beijing Shine Skin AA stood at €3.41/kg and GWS AA at €3.06/kg; AA and higher grades are tight, lower grades loose.
€3.41/kgShine Skin AA, FOB Beijing, 24 September
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — China pumpkin seeds: zero-stock transition keeps new crop prices firm 2026-09-03
Commodity Board — China pumpkin seeds: premium grades tighten as new crop arrives 2026-09-25
Logistics and freight Mixed
Asia–Mediterranean freight falls sharply from July peak
The Freightos Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) fell 7% on the week to US$3,900 per 40 ft on 22 September, down from more than US$7,000 in July. The main driver is the rise in Red Sea and Suez transits, although developments around Bab el-Mandeb keep a risk premium in place. The CBRT held its policy rate at 37% on 10 September; USD/TRY closed at 48.80 on 21 September.
US$3,900/FEUAsia–Mediterranean freight (FBX13), 22 September
Sources (4)
Freightos — Asia – Med rates back to pre-peak levels as Red Sea transits increase – September 22, 2026 Update 2026-09-22
Freightos — Red Sea transits accelerate, even as Houthis advance – September 15, 2026 Update 2026-09-15
Capital — Merkez Bankası'nın Eylül 2026 faiz kararı belli oldu 2026-09-10
US pistachio shipments up 19%; new crop set to halve
According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, the US closed the 2025/26 season with shipments of 1,297.5 mn lb, up 19.1%; August exports jumped 83.1% year on year to 59.3 mn lb. Market estimates put the 2026/27 California crop at 600–800 mn lb, against receipts of 1,593 mn lb the previous season. On the Gaziantep Commodity Exchange, in-shell Antep pistachios averaged TRY 634–655/kg on September’s high-volume days, while grey (boz) kernels held at TRY 1,900–2,200/kg.
+19.1%US 2025/26 pistachio shipments (1,297.5 million lb)
Sources (3)
FreshPlaza (ACP) — U.S. pistachio shipments rise 19% to 1.3 billion pounds 2026-09-22
Vietnam’s January–August cashew exports slipped 0.8% in volume to 478,000 t but rose 2.8% in value to US$3.37 bn. Over the same period the average price of imported raw cashew climbed 8.2% to US$1,658/t, squeezing processors’ margins. In early September W320 stood at US$7.00/kg FOB and W240 at US$7.90/kg, flat since mid-July; the market is waiting for Tanzania’s auctions from 19 October.
US$7.00/kgW320 FOB Ho Chi Minh, unchanged since mid-July
Sources (3)
Thuế & Hải quan Online (GSO) — Ngành điều cần thúc đẩy chế biến chuyên sâu để tiến vào các phân khúc giá trị cao 2026-09-03
SVC Group — Cashew Market Update September 2026: Whole Kernels Hold, Broken Grades Move 2026-09-04
Commodity Board — Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tanzania Prepares for Big New Crop 2026-09-18
CONAB’s estimate released on 24 September put Brazil’s 2026 crop at a record 67.6 million bags (+19.6%), with Arabica at 48.2 million bags. According to Cecafé, August exports of 4.16 million bags were the best August on record. ICE Arabica fell below US$2.75/lb on 16 September, its lowest since June; certified stocks at a 27-year low are limiting the decline.
67.6 million bagsBrazil 2026 crop (CONAB, record)
Sources (3)
CONAB / Agência Gov — Produção de café é estimada em 67,6 milhões de sacas 2026-09-24
Agrolink (Cecafé) — Exportação de café do Brasil tem melhor agosto da história: 4,16 mi sacas 2026-09-11
Trading Economics — Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Lows 2026-09-16
USDA FAS forecasts Chile’s 2026/27 walnut crop at 170,000 t, with exports of 165,000 t; according to ChileNut, July in-shell exports fell 31% while kernel exports rose 16%. China’s harvest began in late August: 90% ELH (185) eased to US$4,890/t CFR Europe, while 80% ELH (XIN2) held firm at US$5,160/t. Old-crop California supply is almost exhausted, and the USDA crop estimate was postponed to October.
Pecan exports weak as China extends duty probe to 2027
According to the American Pecan Council’s July report, US season-to-date shipments fell 10.3% year on year to 316.3 mn lb; July exports dropped 44.4% to 3.0 mn lb, while inventory rose 5.1% to 199.7 mn lb. China extended its anti-dumping investigation into US and Mexican pecans to 25 March 2027, keeping the provisional deposits applied since August: 54.3% for the US and 17.8–51.6% for Mexico. Texas’s 2026 crop is forecast at 39–42 mn lb, up from about 32 mn lb last year.
−10.3%US pecan shipments, Sep–Jul (316.3 million lb)
Industry sources say the world macadamia crop has risen markedly this year while demand has not kept pace, pushing US-dollar prices down by roughly 8% depending on style. South Africa’s 2026 crop is estimated at 93,000–95,000 t and Australia’s at 56,000–58,000 t in shell, while China, expecting 108,000 t, has become the largest producer; only about half of South Africa’s crop had been sold. China’s removal of its 12% duty on South African macadamias is seen as support; the EU’s average import price fell 5.3% to €10.63/kg between January and 6 September.
−8%Macadamia prices in US dollars, year on year (approx.)
Sources (3)
Farmer’s Weekly — Plunging prices leave little to celebrate on World Macadamia Day 2026-09-04
Brazil nut prices flat in Europe as EU imports cool
In the Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht), prices for medium conventional Brazil nuts moved sideways in a narrow band through September. EU Brazil nut imports in the first part of 2026 fell from last year’s record by about a quarter in volume and nearly 20% in value; Bolivia and Peru supply over 90% of the EU market, and the Netherlands, with close to half of import value, is the main distribution hub. No new disruption to South American shipments was reported, while competition from other tree nuts and soft demand cap price gains.
≈ −25%EU Brazil nut imports, volume, early 2026 (y/y)
Sources (2)
Commodity Board — Brazil Nuts in NL Slip Below EU Benchmarks as Imports Cool 2026-09-02
Commodity Board — Brazil Nut Prices Steady in Dordrecht as EU Nut Demand Softens 2026-09-12
TARİŞ set an advance price of TRY 80/kg for 2026 seedless raisins regardless of grade (TRY 120 for No. 9 last year), and TMO announced purchase prices of TRY 85–100/kg on 10 September. The crop is clearly larger than last season’s frost-hit harvest of about 165,000 t. January–July exports reached 81,865 t, with volume up and value down, and prices carry slight downside risk in the short term.
TRY 80/kgTARİŞ 2026 advance price (2025: TRY 120)
Sources (3)
Ekonomi Gazetesi — TARİŞ kuru üzüme brüt 80 lira avans fiyat açıkladı 2026-09-03
Foreks — TMO kuru üzüm alım fiyatlarını açıkladı 2026-09-10
Commodity Board — Turkish raisin prices hold steady as new sultana crop enters market 2026-09-04
On 11 September USDA NASS forecast US 2026 peanut production at 5.27 billion lb (about 2.39 million t), down 27% year on year. USDA kept China’s 2026/27 output unchanged at 18.8 million t with imports of 700,000 t, and cut world production to 50.98 million t. Although supply is tightening, the US farm price in August was US$0.232/lb, below last year.
−27%US 2026 peanut output (USDA NASS)
Sources (3)
USDA NASS — Crop Production (September 2026) 2026-09-11
USDA WAOB — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-675 2026-09-11
In its September report USDA raised 2026/27 world sunflower output to 63.65 million t, with Türkiye forecast at 1.825 million t. With Ukraine’s harvest almost complete, black seed FCA Odesa fell to €0.42/kg on 28 September, a two-year low. In Türkiye, Trakya Birlik set an advance price of TRY 37,000/t for 44% oil content and KARADENİZBİRLİK TRY 34,000/t; confectionery kernels are holding up better than oil-type seed.
