Walnut and pistachio supply gaps; hazelnuts and raisins ease
October saw harvests close across the northern hemisphere and new-season prices take shape. Tighter California walnut and pistachio crops and rising raw cashew costs are pushing prices up, while large Turkish hazelnut and raisin crops and Brazil’s record coffee harvest weigh on prices; freight is climbing on security risks in the Gulf.
Period: October 2026
Figures of the month
−16%California 2026 walnut crop (USDA)Walnuts
646 mn lbUS crop receipts to end-September (−49.2%)Pistachios
The USDA estimate points to a roughly 16% smaller 2026 California walnut crop; after its release, California kernel offers rose by more than US$1/lb. In China, Dalian FOB light quarters were flat at €3.40/kg in early October; the market sees the California shortfall potentially supporting Chinese and Chilean prices as well.
US pistachio receipts down 49%, September shipments a record
According to ACP data, US September shipments rose 32.2% year on year to 101.9 mn lb, a September record; exports climbed 63.5% to 73.5 mn lb, or 72.2% of the total. Crop receipts through September, however, fell 49.2% to 646 mn lb and marketable inventory dropped 40.4% to 725 mn lb; the current crop estimate is about 700 mn lb. On the Gaziantep Commodity Exchange, in-shell pistachios averaged TRY 612.89/kg on 21 October on 358 t traded and TRY 674.51/kg on 28 October, while grey kernels held near TRY 2,000/kg.
646 mn lbUS crop receipts to end-September (−49.2%)
Sources (3)
FreshPlaza (ACP) — U.S. pistachio exports rise 63.5% as crop receipts fall 49.2% 2026-10-22
TMO set its 2026/27 in-shell hazelnut purchase price at TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality and TRY 250/kg for Levant. As of 23 October, the Black Sea free market traded at TRY 140–190/kg, down TRY 10–20 on the week. Crop estimates range from 705,000 to 805,000 t; January–September exports fell to 152,543 t in volume but rose to US$1.92 bn in value.
TRY 140–190/kgIn-shell free market, 23 October
Sources (4)
BirGün — 2026 TMO fındık fiyatları açıklandı 2026-08-06
Timeturk — 23 Ekim: Serbest piyasada fındık fiyatları 10-20 TL geriledi 2026-10-23
Ekonomi Gazetesi — Fındıkta iki rekolte: 100 bin tonluk fark 2026-07-30
24 Saat (AA, KFMİB verisi) — Türkiye'nin fındık ihracat geliri 9 ayda 1,9 milyar dolara ulaştı 2026-10-11
Vietnam cashew prices rise for the first time since July
Vietnam’s January–August cashew exports slipped about 1% in volume but rose 2.8% in value to US$3.37 bn. The average price of imported raw cashew nuts climbed 8.2% over the same period to US$1,658/t, squeezing processor margins. In early October, FOB prices stood at about US$7.10/kg for W320 and US$8.00/kg for W240, both up US$0.10 for the first time since July.
US$7.10/kgW320 FOB Vietnam, early October
Sources (3)
Báo Văn Hóa — Xuất khẩu hạt điều đạt 3,37 tỉ USD dù lượng giảm 0,9% 2026-09-17
According to Almond Board data, California shipments in the first two months of the 2026/27 season rose 19% to 422.6 million lb, with September shipments to the Middle East up 1%. In early October, Marcona 12/14 FOB Madrid held firm at €6.70/kg and US Carmel SSR at €6.75/kg; upside looks limited once India’s festival-season buying is over.
+19%California shipments, first two months of season
The ICO composite indicator fell 8.7% in September to an average of 262.18 US cents/lb, while CONAB’s September estimate of a record 67.6 million-bag Brazilian crop (Arabica 48.2 million bags, +34.8%) continues to weigh on the market. ICE Arabica stood at about 285 cents/lb on 28 October, 27% lower year on year. Very low certified stocks and weather risk are limiting the decline.
262.18 cents/lbICO composite indicator, September average (−8.7%)
Sources (3)
CONAB / Agência Gov — Produção de café é estimada em 67,6 milhões de sacas 2026-09-24
China pumpkin kernels: Shine Skin tight, GWS slightly softer
China entered the new season with very low old-crop stocks, and early estimates put the 2026 Shine Skin crop more than 25% below last year. As of 22 October, FOB Beijing GWS AA was flat at €3.14/kg, GWS A €0.09 lower at €2.25/kg and Shine Skin AA firm at €3.48/kg. Direction is up or flat for top grades and slightly down for standard GWS.
US pecan shipments at five-year low as stocks rise
In the 2025/26 season closed by the American Pecan Council’s August report, US shipments fell 10.9% to 343.7 mn lb, the lowest in the five-year reference period; exports dropped 19.6% and ending inventory rose 6.4% to 184.2 mn lb. According to USDA, harvest is under way in Georgia; grower prices for Pawnee eased from US$4.31–4.66 per meat-yield point on 6 October to US$3.70–4.00 on 27 October. Shelled pecan imports from Mexico through land border crossings totalled 11.6 mn lb since 1 August, below 15.3 mn lb a year earlier.
343.7 mn lbUS 2025/26 pecan shipments (−10.9%)
Sources (3)
FreshPlaza (APC) — U.S. pecan shipments fall 10.9% in 2025/26 season 2026-10-15
Kenyan grower Kakuzi, in a new profit warning issued in October, cited the continued downturn in the macadamia market and a smaller crop as the main reasons for a marked fall in full-year earnings. According to its first-half figures, the average net selling price fell 16% from US$11.56 to US$9.72/kg; saleable kernel output rose from 413 to 428 t while sales volume dropped from 252 to 212 t. The company attributed this to higher global supply and weaker demand; macadamia operating profit fell 78.6% to KSh68.2 million.
US$9.72/kgKakuzi (Kenya) average net selling price, H1 2026 (−16%)
Sources (1)
The Kenya Times — Kakuzi Plc Issues Fresh Profit Warning As Macadamia Market Slumps 2026-10-22
Large Turkish sultana crop pushes prices down; Chilean Flame steady
In Türkiye, which sets world raisin prices, the trade estimates the 2026 sultana crop at about 320,000 t, against around 165,000 t in last season’s frost-hit crop. New-crop FOB offers reset 14–15% below previous levels in mid-October, and TARİŞ’s advance price of TRY 80/kg (TRY 120 last year) reflects the softer domestic market. Chilean Flame jumbo held steady at €2.50/kg FCA in Europe.
−14–15%Turkish new-crop sultana FOB offers
Sources (3)
Commodity Board — Turkish raisins face pressure: big new crop, weak prices, weather risk 2026-07-29
Commodity Board — Turkish sultanas reset lower while Chinese raisins hold firm 2026-10-15
Ekonomi Gazetesi — TARİŞ kuru üzüme brüt 80 lira avans fiyat açıkladı 2026-09-03
USDA cuts China peanut crop to 18.0 million tonnes
USDA’s October report cut China’s 2026/27 peanut production forecast from 18.8 to 18.0 million t and raised its import forecast to 750,000 t, lowering world output to 50.11 million t. In the US, USDA NASS’s September estimate puts production 27% lower at 5.27 billion lb on reduced plantings. Supply is tightening, though prices have not yet jumped.
18.0 million tChina 2026/27 output (USDA, October)
TÜİK’s second estimate on 23 October puts Türkiye’s 2026 sunflower output up 21.8% at about 2.4 million t, while USDA forecasts a record world crop of 63.6 million t. Black Sea seed prices are easing. Supply is ample and prices are heading lower.
63.6 million tWorld sunflower output (USDA, record)
Sources (2)
Foreks (TÜİK) — Bitkisel üretimin bir önceki yıla göre artacağı tahmin edildi 2026-10-23
Drewry’s WCI rose 2% on the week to US$4,585 per 40 ft on 22 October, a 15-week high, and the Freightos Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) climbed 3% to US$3,927. According to Alphaliner, 63% of Far East–Europe capacity is again routing via Suez. Attacks around Hormuz keep war-risk premiums alive on UAE and Iraq shipments; USD/TRY stood at 49.84 on 28 October.
US$4,585/FEUDrewry WCI, 22 October (15-week high)
Sources (4)
Drewry — World Container Index – 22 Oct 2026 2026-10-22
Freightos — Red Sea container traffic set for full return in Q1 – October 20, 2026 Update 2026-10-21
Ship & Bunker (Alphaliner) — Container Lines Shift 63% of Far East-Europe Capacity Back to Suez Canal 2026-10-21
